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An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Financial-Forecasting-Software-Market. But, they cannot anticipate how changes in the conduct of elections will affect turnout and vote counting itself. Cumulative LEI growth is fixed at its value for Quarter 13 in all models, and so all that varies across quarters are the polls. There is a growing body of knowledge about how people at risk interpret, understand, and use information in making decisions which NMHSs can use in this process. Even if Biden wins the popular vote, there is a chance, of course, that he will not carry the Electoral College. Published online by Cambridge University Press:  The post-convention measure is for the week starting the second Tuesday after the second convention. While a few industries will register a drop in demand, numerous others will continue to remain unscathed and show promising growth opportunities. Close this message to accept cookies or find out how to manage your cookie settings. Aa; Aa; Contents: THE STATE PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL/STATE ECONOMY MODEL; ACCURACY OF OUR BEFORE-THE-FACT FORECASTS; 2020: 6-IN-10 CHANCE BIDEN WINS, 4-IN-10 CHANCE TRUMP IS REELECTED; CONCLUSIONS AND CAVEATS; DATA … — Trust me, I couldn’t make these names up even if I tried. The pre-convention measure is for the week ending the Monday before the start of the first convention. This approach maximizes the correlation with the presidential vote, which peaks in Quarter 13, which is the first quarter—through the end of March—of the election year. "lang": "en" Our measure taps growth over the presidential term, giving greater weight to quarters closer to Election Day. Table 3 shows equations using pre- and post-convention polls.Footnote 1 As indicated by the R-squareds, predictability increases using post-convention polls: before the conventions, cumulative LEI growth is the strongest predictor; afterward, polls dominate. "languageSwitch": true, This meeting formed part of the Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems Caribbean initiative - Strengthening Hydro-Meteorological and Early Warning Services - is a US$5.5 million regional project that seeks to strengthen and streamline capacity related to weather forecasting, hydrological services, multi-hazard impact-based forecasting and warnings and service delivery. Our model based on trial-heat polls and cumulative growth in LEI forecasts a popular victory for Joe Biden over Donald Trump, and by an ample margin to avoid worries of an Electoral College upset. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association, Hostname: page-component-546c57c664-k7kqq For Quarter 14, Trump’s poll share fell to 45.8% as the impact of COVID-19 was being realized. Skip to Journal menu Skip to Issue articles. Now, ideally we would have a variety of live interviewer polls between September 8–14, fully two weeks after the Republican convention ended, but this is not the case: there is only one poll, from Fox. Table 1 shows that cumulative LEI growth and trial-heat polls are statistically significant predictors of the vote in all quarters. That evolving economic conditions were in part precipitated by an exogenous shock might mitigate its impact on voters. To produce the distribution, we use the standard forecast error (2.21) associated with the post-convention forecast. Accordingly, we’ll focus on the statistical concept of stationarity and its impact on forecasting accuracy by explaining two important metrics, namely Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS). We close by returning to the point that presidential elections are not only about the economy, and 2020 is no exception (see the online appendix). One potentially important cut-point is the Trump (two-party) margin from 2016, which was 48.9%, indicated by the middle vertical line in figure 1. Table 2 Growth in Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), by Quarter, 2017–2020. impact-based forecasting, we can further strengthen our efforts to translate early warning into early action, saving countless lives and reducing suffering – efforts made more urgent than ever with our changing climate. The dependent variable is the incumbent presidential party’s percent of the two-party vote. Let’s see what our model augurs for 2020. By Quarter 13—the first quarter of the election year—the growth in LEI both summarizes economic trends up to that point and forecasts the expected economy for the remainder of the election year. Plugging the number into our pre-convention equation in table 3 predicts 45.0% for Trump, with a probability of winning the popular vote of .13. Trial-heat polls are for the week before the first party convention and for two weeks after the second convention. Table 1 presents the results of equations predicting the incumbent party vote from our two variables for the 17 elections between 1952 through 2016. Pourquoi participer à Forecasting 2020 ? 8.7 CiteScore. Four models are presented, one for each quarter of the election year. Numbers in parentheses are standard errors. This is clear from the fact that we provide not only a predicted vote share but also the probability of victory. "figures": false Impact forecasts The ANYWHERE project combines the hazard forecast with specific vulnerability and exposure information (according to the terrain characteristics and groups of people/infrastructures potentially affected) by means of artificial intelligence techniques, automatically providing with the impact forecasting for different kind of weather-induced hazards. Damage, suffering and the cost of emergency aid will reduce when communities are capable of responding proactively to a disaster through early warning and early action. Read the latest articles of Technological Forecasting and Social Change at ScienceDirect.com, Elsevier’s leading platform of peer-reviewed scholarly literature . When plugging this number into the first equation of table 1 together with cumulative LEI growth, the early prediction for November based on Quarter 13 data is a 43.2% share for Trump. Ils peuvent, sur place, vous aider à évaluer l'impact des évolutions économiques sur votre.... 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